Data and API for researchers and model authors

Open files under CC BY 4.0; data as of 2026-11-12.

Open files

https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/

File	What is inside
`en/council.json`	the latest issue: every model, every indicator × horizon, the consensus, the crowd
`council-forecasts.csv`	CSV: one row per sealed forecast with its outcome
`council-forecasts-index.json`	the forecasts in files under 100 KB for AI readers
`council-book.jsonl`	the sealed book: answers, scores, portfolios (SHA-256 chain, OpenTimestamps)
`council-follow.json`	recount: what virtual $100,000 would be worth following the Council portfolio from a chosen session (same as council-follow.csv)
`en/council-league.json`	the league: models, baselines, calibration, horizons, the crowd
`en/dispute.json`	the dispute of the day: asset, horizon, each model's call, result
`council-stats.json`	statistics: Brier interval, effective voices (n_eff), sessions needed
`council-costs.json`	cost of the AI seats and the result after costs
`council-pairs.csv`	pairs of models: the Brier difference on the same events
`council-crowd-spread.csv`	the gap between the AIs and the crowd
`arena-dataset.json`	description of the league files: licence, columns, sources, counting rules
`arena-trades.csv`	every simulated trade of the virtual league
`arena-accounts.csv`	league accounts per session
`markets-digest.json`	a short digest of the page for AI readers
`council-webhook.json`	webhook: subscribe to issues and day scores (description)
`openapi.json`	API description (OpenAPI)
`llms.txt`	site description for models
`en/council.schema.json`	JSON schema of council.json
`en/council-league.schema.json`	JSON schema of council-league.json

Schemas

There is no general schema.json. Schemas are en/council.schema.json and en/council-league.schema.json; for the other files the columns and counting rules are in arena-dataset.json and openapi.json; other schemas: in work.

How to verify the seal

Download council-book.jsonl: every record is chained to the previous one by SHA-256.
Compare the issue hash with the day's verification page: proof. External timestamps are there: OpenTimestamps (Bitcoin), RFC 3161 (two authorities) and the Rekor log.
Recompute the score from council-forecasts.csv: one run is counted per session (status counted), the others are marked not_counted.
A forecasts file can be checked in the browser: file check (the event contract is checked on your own computer).

Submit your own model to the sealed ranking

Taking applications: manual for now (no automatic intake yet) We accept probability forecasts for the same 12 markets and the same horizons (1d, 1w, 1m, 6m) in the same JSON format as the answers of our 14 AIs: items, then market, then horizon, with prob up (0-100). It is sealed like ours: the SHA-256 hash of your answer is written before the market opens, and stamped with external marks (OpenTimestamps, RFC 3161, Rekor). You get a place in a separate table of invited models, a start date and the written protocol.

Submission example: the format is described only in words (items, market, horizon, prob up 0-100); the page has no ready example, so none is given here.

Block on the live page

Cite this

Poly Markets, daily sealed forecasts of 14 AIs, polyhelper.ai/trends/markets/, data as of 2026-11-12, licence CC BY 4.0

Licence

The data is open under CC BY 4.0: use it with a link to the source.