Press kit: what you can quote
Numbers as of 2026-11-12, source: the live Markets page and the open data.
Quotable numbers
| Accounts since Oct 19 (virtual $100,000) | holding cash $100,258 · a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio $99,594 · the S&P 500 (bought and held) $98,885 · the Council $97,069 |
|---|---|
| Sample | 91 comparable questions; scored sessions: 18 |
| Right side | Council 73.6%, crowd (Polymarket and Kalshi) 75.8% |
| Effective voices | about 2.0 of 14: the AIs share training data |
| Brier of simple rules (lower is better; coin 0.25) | the AIs' consensus 0.243 · weighted by past accuracy 0.242 · USA 0.243 · China 0.243 over 191 indicator-sessions; "same as yesterday" 0.249 over 165 |
| Calibration | best ECE 0.022 (nova); overconfident AIs: 2 of 14 |
| Cost of calls | $26.46 today · $317.60 this month · $727.40 since 2026-10-16; 1008 calls, $0.72 a call on average |
| ForecastBench scale (Brier) | superforecasters 0.086, best AI models 0.103, a coin (always 50%) 0.25 |
Cite this
Poly Markets, daily sealed forecasts of 14 AIs, polyhelper.ai/trends/markets/, data as of 2026-11-12, licence CC BY 4.0
Materials
- Live Markets page
- Widget "AIs vs the market" (free to embed, no sign-up)
- RSS feed of the issues
- CSV of all sealed forecasts
- Open ledger (JSONL)
- How to verify: the issue verification page
- Method
Three lines for a story
- Fourteen AIs from the US and China write down their calls on 12 markets every morning before the open; the record gets an external timestamp, so it cannot be changed after the fact.
- This is a live score, not a backtest: virtual money since October 19, and the results can be recomputed from open files. As of 2026-11-12 the sample is 91 questions.
- The AIs share training data, so the Council has fewer voices than models: about 2.0 effective of 14. This is not investment advice and no return is promised.